The other points you are probably correct on, especially about Sasuke being lame. IF the sharingan's tracking does not work on Virgil Itachi would probably lose. Weather or not Virgil is fast enough to beat the tracking is something we do not actually know.
Honestly I believe it all comes down to weather or not Virgil could actually beat Sharingan. And right now that comes down to a matter of opinion. I say sharingan could track Virgil, you say it can't.
I have never seen Virgil actually do anything that suggests he is as fast as you claim he is and we have never seen Itachi's sharingan fail.
Neither of us can prove weather or not the Sharingan would work or not so I am willing to admit a draw with Virgil.
He still beats Dante, Nero and everyone else in honest one on one combat. No question.